So, I was wondering how the Avenger Bolt Thrower would compare on a point per point comparison to other shooting and if it's better, whether you should always take the swift reload. After doing the math, I thought I might as well share it on here.
So, the Bolt Thrower comes in at 50 points with an average of 3,5 shots per turn. With swift reload, that average goes up to 4,47. 4,47/3,5 = 1,28. 70/50 = 1,4. This means that, unless you've got the spare 20 points laying around, taking the swift reload costs more points in comparison to the shots you're getting out of it.
Seeing that the bolt thrower without swift reload is more efficient, let's use that value to calculate the effectiveness compared to other shooting. Now all of those bolts are S7, so I'll be comparing them to S3 bows. It's just easier that way, given that it means they'll always wound on two dice numbers lower. 3,5 shots means 1,75 hits. Here's the table for the chance to wound on those hits:
3+ = 1,75/3*2=1,67 wounds
4+ = 1,75/2 = 0,86 wounds
5+ = 1,75/3 = 0,58 wounds
Now for the chance to wound on a strength 3 bow:
5+ = 1/3 = 0,33 wounds
6+ = 1/6 = 0,17 wounds
6/4+ = 1/12 = 0,083 wounds
This means that you'll need the following amount of hits from strength 3 bows for all the to wound rolls:
1,67/0,33 = 5 hits
0,86/0,17 = 5 hits
0,58/0,083 = 7 hits
Citadel Guards, S3 bowmen from the same list, hit on 4s. This means that you'll need 10 of them to equal the bolt thrower against D4-D7 and 14 above that. Comparing them to elves, being a feared shooting army, they hit on 3s so will need 7,5 bows against D4=D7 and 10,5 bows above to equal the bolt thrower.
Now while the latter calculation is just there to show how potent the bolt thrower is for just 50 points, let's now go onto the effectiveness compared to the Citadel Guards. With bows, they come in at 10 points. This means that you'll be spending 100 points to equal the bolt thrower against D4-D7 and 140 above, making the bolt thrower 100/50 = 2 times more effective points for points against D4-D7 and 140/50 = 2,8 times more effective against D8 and above.
So, is the bolt thrower worth it? It all depends on whether you want the extra numbers from the Citadel Guards. But purely looking at it's shooting capabilities, it surely is.
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