Do out of productiion miniature models appreciate or depreciate over time?

Tried surfing the web on this topic, found nothing concrete. If you have links it would be helpful.

I have no plans on ever selling my models, but if a rainy day comes I want to know if I'm sitting on a pile of gold or pile of coal. So it is something I've been thinking of

How do you evaluate the value of a miniature?

Material: Resin, Metal, Plastic
Amount produced
New in Box
Opened box
Expertly Painted
Average Paint job
Poorly Painted
Used and stripped
Assembled and primed

Would there still be a demand in a couple generations time from collectors and players? More so specifically to this site, will Tolkien's Middle-Earth be eternal like Shakespeare's poems, to be of more value than other intellectual properties such as Warhammer?

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My Lotr backlog: 305/952[][][][][][][][][][]32% completed
Painting Lineup: Mumakil x2, Rohan Heroes x8, Haradrim, SKoDA

From what I have seen in the secondary market (eBay), Metals appreciate somewhat depending on demand and what condition they are in. New in box being the best. Expect a 25% appreciation on average.
Plastic sells at what I consider the "real" price. That being, the price plastics went for ten years ago before GW went insane and hyper-inflated their prices when they went from boxes of 20-24 to 10-12 infantry. About $1 US per mini.
finecast has almost no demand/resell value. I've had trouble giving away finecast at 50% price.
That has been my experience.

I'm far from an expert on rarity, though from what I can tell, most of the miniatures that came from BGiME tend to be less valuable as they are far more common. There hasn't been a lot of Finecast models on the secondary markets -and even then, most, if not all Finecast models are still available so only time will tell. Same applies to most plastics, so the real "rare" models are those that were available only in metal and have gone OOP without a replacement -especially those that were unique characters, like Gildor. Apart from that, I tend to see OOP models that were released during the WotR-era (like the alternate Hasharin or Pelennor Eomer) fetch high prices as well, mostly due to them being around when the game was less popular or because these were Direct Only.

Although I firmly believe Tolkien's work eternal and in the line of other great works through the ages, I'm also fairy sure the same cannot be said about the merchandise. Most things are selling for less than they've been bought for.

This is bases on my own experiences, and might not apply to everything:
(keep in mind I'm switching a lot between currencies here, mostly euro's and pounds, since I either spotted or bought things in that currency. And I don't have a currency convertor inside my head )

Even a bigger name as Weta is not immune to it. I got my Galadriel Statue without any visible flaws (there's a tiny chips of paint of on the part of her hand that goes beneath the gown) for 50 only euros. No one wanted to offer a higher price on her. (You can find her for 3 times that price on ebay, but keep in mind these are all BIN listings that have been listed for a long time.)
Arwen, though in worse condition, did only cost me 40 euros.

Getting back to the warhammer part, I see something similar. Everything that has come out with the BGiME is often common and does not have much value. With a bit of luck and keeping an eye out on these, you should be able to get the whole set for 50 euro's or less, for there are quite a few people who've long given up it and are happy to get a few bucks for it. If things from this have already been painted, it's often poorly done and you better give it away for free...
You don't see an expert paint job on these often.

Metal figueres seem to be the ones who keep their best value, followed by plastic, but the plastic figueres will not go for amazing prices as well, just decent ones and often not near GWs current price range.
Finecast new for new popular items seems to be doing quite decent. Otherwise it's not that great.
To give an example of finecast vs. metal: with a bit of luck and keeping an eye on things, you should be able to get an Elven Stormcaller for about or less what would the the price for one with GW, who GW only sells them in a set of 4 Galadhrim for £24
I've seen the metal version going anywhere for between £20-40.

The difference between this seems to be less with the really well painted models. Once the final result is alright, it seems to matter less wether it's metal or resin?
Having just stripped some metal figueres for the second time, I can understand people preferring metal quite well now.

And more on paint job, a badly painted common metal figure will rarely sell as well. Also, lot's sell at a cheaper price than the individual figures. Badly painted lots or lots with badly painted figueres sell even cheaper.
(which is great fun if part of that lot is a complete (old, so metal) White Council set, or has some 18 Haldir's Elves in it)

Of the the figueres I bought, Gildor Inglorion and the Galadhrim captain that has not been brought out in finecast are the only ones that did cost me quite a bit and I've seen Gildor alone going for prices between 40-50 euro's.
Others came either from GW itself, or for similar to GW prices (or slightly lower).

For many of the new Hobbit releases, I don't think many will hold their value. Now already, I bought the Palace guards, both Thranduils and Legolas and Tauriel from last years wave for their original prices, very well painted.
Now with more and more release being finecast, I don't expect them to hold their value as well.

It's hard tp predict how things will be in let;s say 50 year, but it could be rather that pile of coal than the pile of gold.

Interesting reading, my view is some metals have and some have not. Limited editions and rares obviously have. FC is still to new and current to see its future, time will tell.

Gold or coal? impossible to tell, i hope gold but it does not matter as i will never sell (my preciousessssssss)

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Harfoots-The first of the Hobbit people to cross over the Misty Mountains and enter Eriador.

Like I said, rainy day emergency only. I just hope nobody is buying these miniatures as an investment, of course if they are they must be keeping it mint and sealed in the box. I could see a well painted Smaug possibly appreciating in the future, but the competition is a professionally painted Weta model.

Those rare models should fetch a lot. Once GW released a special edition White Dwarf model. My friend bought 2 of them. One to paint and one to sale. And he did sell it several years late for more than twice the original amount. Perhaps he should of held onto it longer to sell it at 10x.

Interesting posts guys, thank you for your input to all of you. I am hoping for gold as well, I mean who doesn't want to be like Smaug?

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My Lotr backlog: 305/952[][][][][][][][][][]32% completed
Painting Lineup: Mumakil x2, Rohan Heroes x8, Haradrim, SKoDA

I think it's as simple as this.

Over the years many of the metals simply sold in fairly low numbers. If they didn't you would have loads of Gildors, grey company etc etc on ebay.

It highlights that the vast majority of lotr gamers were happy with pretty much bgime and plastic box sets (all sold at reasonable rrp at the time).

In fact when you look at the frequency of many of the (non bgime) metals on ebay, despite being readily available from GW for years (mahud wariors with blowpipes?), you begin to get a good understanding of the low sale volumes GW must have been having ....

Many hard core collectors/gamers that did buy such metals have simply held on to them. Now as these gamers try to complete their collections they realise how relatively few of these are in circulation hence the prices !

As to whether they are worth hanging on to for further appreciation or investment will always be a gamble.

I think it is certainly a sellers market right now, and I am certainly glad i picked up each mini as they were released over the years. We are in a position right now where there is still an active gaming/collectible interest in the miniatures, and the oop less common ones are in high demand. I believe interest and value will decrease over time as the game slowly becomes less popular and bargains will once more appear on ebay for those die hards who stick with it for the long haul. Having said that, I believe a complete collection containing every mini ever released (and some unreleased) might be worth a tidy some in the future.

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I have a Cunning Retirement Plan...

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Published ebooks:
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Phantom Ships, Ghost Flotilla
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In my experience, which is primarily of the Warhammer Fantasy and 40K markets, most minis depreciate, some appreciate. If the price is set by what GW currently sell a mini at, rather than what the mini was sold at on release, then they depreciate quite a lot. Most current players only want current minis, and the amount of old minis available often is comfortably enough to meet demand. Whether there is something comparable available often affects the price too. For example, the seated Genestealer Patriarch has not had an equivalent mini and has been oop for a while, and it goes for £50+ if it's in good condition. Meanwhile, there have always been versions of Eldar Harlequins available, and the original 80s versions are not hard to find, so they often go for well under the rrp of the current versions.

In terms of condition affecting price, the closer to new it is the better. Collectors who specialise in oop minis are reconciled to the fact they'll probably have to get them painted (which they then strip), so it's not a massive deal, but you will get more if it's a desirable mini and still in the box. Collectors of old minis tend to like metal and don't have much truck with these new-fangled plastics. That may not be as much the case with the LotR line, given it is more recent. Metal and resin minis are susceptible to recasting, and if it's done well it can be hard to tell. This also can add to the supply and the depreciation.